IMF Raises India’s FY26 Growth Forecast to 6.4% Citing Lower Inflation and Strong Reforms

IMF India growth forecast for FY2025-26 has been raised to 6.4%, up from the previous estimate of 6.2% announced in April. The upward revision in the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook update reflects lower inflation, a more favorable external environment and continued economic reforms. The IMF has also raised its FY2026-27 GDP growth forecast to 6.4%, highlighting the resilience of India’s economy and its growth prospects.

The report also upgraded India’s FY2026-27 GDP growth estimate by 10 basis points to 6.4%, signaling sustained momentum over the medium term.

“In India, growth is projected to be 6.4 percent in [FY 2026 and FY 2027], with both numbers revised slightly upward, reflecting a more benign external environment than assumed in the April reference forecast,” the IMF stated.

Responding to questions on the rationale behind the revision, Deniz Igan, Division Chief at the IMF, cited the suspension of higher tariffs and a drop in food prices that contributed to lower inflation. Additionally, she emphasized the role of structural reforms, consistent consumption growth, and continued public investment in maintaining stable economic expansion.

These factors collectively underpin India’s resilient economic outlook and reinforce investor confidence moving forward.

GST Rate Revision Proposed for 148 Items: Higher Tax on Tobacco and Aerated Water

GST Rate Revision

GST rate revision has been proposed for 148 goods and services, with significant changes expected across tobacco products, aerated beverages, luxury goods and essential items. The Group of Ministers (GoM) on Rate Rationalisation has reportedly recommended introducing a new 35% GST rate for selected products, including tobacco and aerated water, which currently attract a 28% GST rate.

GST Rate Revision: Proposed Changes

The GoM has suggested GST Rate Revision for 148 items. Key changes include:

Category Current GST Rate Proposed GST Rate
Tobacco products 28% 35%
Aerated water 28% 35%
Watches (above ₹25,000) 18% 28%
Shoes (above ₹15,000) 18% 28%
Packaged water 18% 5%
Notebooks 12% 5%

Impact on Apparel

Changes to GST rates for readymade garments have also been proposed:

  • 5% GST on garments priced up to ₹1,500.
  • 18% GST on garments priced between ₹1,500 and ₹10,000.
  • 28% GST on garments priced above ₹10,000.

Focus on Luxury and Everyday Items

The recommendations include higher taxes on luxury items such as leather bags, cosmetics, and high-end watches. Conversely, essential items like notebooks and packaged water may see reduced rates to provide relief to consumers.

The proposed revisions aim to rationalize the tax structure and balance the fiscal burden across various segments. Final decisions are expected after review and approval by the GST Council.

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Adani Green Energy Stock increases 9%: Factors Behind 50% Gains in 4 Sessions

Adani Green Energy stock climbed 9% during early trading on Monday, extending a sharp rally that has seen the shares gain nearly 50% in just four trading sessions. The strong upward move has attracted investor attention, with market participants focusing on recent company clarifications, support from key investors and developments surrounding the company’s credit ratings.

Stock Performance
On Monday, Adani Green Energy shares opened at ₹1,364 on the BSE, up around 3% from the previous close of ₹1,324.55. The stock continued its upward momentum, hitting an intraday high of ₹1,445, registering a 9% increase. This rally builds on the stock’s rise from ₹897 on November 26, 2024, marking an impressive 50% gain over four sessions.

Key Drivers Behind the Rally

  1. Clarification on Legal Allegations
    The company recently addressed allegations of bribery involving its chairman Gautam Adani and other officials. In a statement to stock exchanges, Adani Green Energy clarified that neither Gautam Adani, Sagar Adani, nor Vineet Jain was charged with violations of the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) in the cases filed by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) or the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).The company acknowledged that its directors face charges related to alleged securities fraud, wire fraud conspiracy, and securities fraud conspiracy. However, the clarification appears to have eased investor concerns.
  2. Support from Key Investors
    Major investors have reaffirmed their confidence in Adani Group stocks. Following CQG Partners, Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company (IHC), the investment arm of the ruling family, has expressed continued faith in the group, bolstering market sentiment.
  3. Stable Ratings Amid Challenges
    Rating agencies have maintained a cautious yet steady outlook. Fitch Ratings reaffirmed Adani Green Energy’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at “BBB-” while placing it on Rating Watch Negative. This stability has helped reassure investors amid ongoing scrutiny.

The recent developments, combined with institutional backing and resilient ratings, have fueled optimism around Adani Green Energy, driving significant gains in a short period. However, investors are advised to stay updated on further developments and market conditions.

Tata expands iphone manufacturing in India with Pegatron

Tata expands iphone manufacturing in India

Tata iPhone manufacturing in India is set to expand as Tata Electronics moves to acquire a 60% stake in Pegatron’s iPhone production facility in India. The strategic deal strengthens Tata’s position in Apple’s global supply chain and supports India’s growing role as a major hub for electronics and smartphone manufacturing.

Under the proposed agreement, Tata Electronics will oversee the facility’s daily operations, while Pegatron will retain a 40% stake and continue providing technical expertise. The partnership could further strengthen India’s position as Apple diversifies its manufacturing operations beyond China.

Tata iPhone Manufacturing in India: What the Pegatron Deal Means

Under the new agreement, Tata Electronics will oversee the facility’s daily operations, while Pegatron retains a 40% stake to provide technical expertise. This partnership underscores Tata’s growing influence in iPhone manufacturing and reinforces India’s role as a critical hub for high-tech production.

This acquisition complements Tata’s existing facilities, including an assembly unit in Karnataka acquired from Wistron, another Taiwanese company. The addition of Pegatron’s Chennai plant, which employs over 10,000 people with an annual production capacity of 5 million iPhones, and a planned facility in Hosur, Tamil Nadu, further solidifies Tata’s expansion in the sector.

Beyond increasing manufacturing capacity, this deal signals Tata’s entry into the global iPhone supply chain, positioning it as a competitor to Foxconn, the other major iPhone manufacturer in India. The move is part of a broader strategy by Tata to establish itself as a leader in advanced technology manufacturing. This ambition is also evident in Tata’s partnership with Taiwan-based Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC) to develop India’s first AI-enabled semiconductor fabrication plant in Gujarat.

Analysts project that India’s share in global iPhone production could grow significantly, with the country expected to account for 20-25% of total iPhone shipments this year, up from 12-14% last year. The Pegatron facility will play a key role in meeting this rising demand.

Regulatory approval from the Competition Commission of India (CCI) is still pending, and financial details of the transaction remain undisclosed. However, this acquisition marks a pivotal moment for Tata Electronics, underscoring its commitment to scaling operations and becoming a key player in the global technology landscape.

In summary, Tata expands iphone manufacturing in India with Pegatron’s iPhone production facility is a bold step towards enhancing its manufacturing capabilities and securing a prominent position in the global supply chain, while also contributing to India’s growing importance in the technology sector.

Read Also: Noel Tata Joins Tata Sons Board as First Family Member Since 2011

Rupee could decline by 8-10% if Trump secures a second term, according to an SBI report.

Rupee could decline by 8-10%

Rupee decline could reach 8-10% against the U.S. dollar during Donald Trump’s second term, according to an SBI research report. The report suggests that the Indian currency may experience temporary depreciation before stabilizing as global trade policies, tariffs and investment flows adjust to the new U.S. administration.

The potential rupee decline could create both challenges and opportunities for India. While a weaker currency may increase the cost of imports such as crude oil, it could support export-oriented sectors including textiles, manufacturing and agriculture.

Trump’s return to office is seen as a catalyst for select markets, but attention is shifting to broader economic effects and potential realignments in supply chains. According to the report, Trump’s administration presents both challenges and opportunities for India. While short-term risks like increased tariffs, a strong dollar, and potential restrictions on H-1B visas could create market volatility, there are long-term benefits for India, such as expanding its manufacturing sector, diversifying export markets, and enhancing economic independence.

Impact of Rupee Decline on Indian Exports and Imports

The report notes that while the rupee could weaken, this may be beneficial for export sectors like textiles, manufacturing, and agriculture. However, depreciation could also increase import costs, especially for commodities like oil, with minimal inflation impact projected.

Rupee Decline and Its Impact on FDI and Indian IT

In addition, the report anticipates that foreign direct investment (FDI) patterns may shift, as India is now receiving FDI in diverse sectors such as renewable energy, maritime transport, and medical equipment. The Trump administration’s potential for H-1B visa restrictions could also impact Indian IT firms, potentially raising costs as companies may need to hire locally in the U.S.

SBI’s analysis concludes that while the rupee may experience fluctuations, it is unlikely to face extreme depreciation, and India’s broader economic base may provide resilience amidst the evolving U.S.-India economic relationship.

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Exclusive: Documents reveal that India’s food delivery giants Zomato and Swiggy have violated antitrust laws

Zomato & Swiggy have violated antitrust laws

Zomato Swiggy antitrust investigation has found that the two major food delivery platforms allegedly violated competition laws through exclusive business practices with selected restaurants, according to confidential documents reviewed by Reuters. The Competition Commission of India (CCI) investigation examined whether such arrangements could restrict competition and affect smaller restaurants operating on food delivery platforms.

The findings have put the business practices of Zomato and Swiggy under greater regulatory scrutiny, although the final decision and any potential penalties remain pending.

Zomato Swiggy Antitrust Investigation: What Did the CCI Find?

These exclusivity agreements between the companies and selected restaurant partners limit competition in the market, according to CCI’s investigative findings. The antitrust probe, which began in 2022 following a complaint from the National Restaurant Association of India, highlights concerns about the impact of such practices on smaller food outlets.

The confidential documents, shared with Zomato, Swiggy, and the complainant in March 2024, have not been previously disclosed. After Reuters’ report, Zomato’s shares dropped 3%, though they were flat earlier in the day. Swiggy’s IPO prospectus lists this investigation as an “internal risk,” warning that any violation of the Competition Act could result in significant fines.

Swiggy informed investigators that its “Swiggy Exclusive” program was phased out in 2023, though it plans to introduce a similar program called “Swiggy Grow” in non-metro areas. Both Swiggy and Zomato have transformed India’s food delivery landscape as smartphone use and online ordering surged, listing hundreds of thousands of outlets on their platforms.

The investigation found that both companies also required restaurants to maintain pricing parity, reducing market competition by preventing discounts on other platforms. Zomato was noted for enforcing price restrictions, sometimes with penalties for non-compliance. Swiggy allegedly warned some partner restaurants that their rankings would suffer if they didn’t follow price parity.

The final phase of the CCI case involves a decision from its leadership, which is still evaluating the investigation’s findings to determine any potential penalties or required adjustments to Swiggy’s and Zomato’s business practices. This decision may take several weeks, and both companies could still challenge the findings.

Zomato’s stock has surged to a valuation of approximately $27 billion since its 2021 listing, while Swiggy values itself at $11.3 billion in its IPO. According to Macquarie Capital, Swiggy’s projected food order values for 2024-25 are $3.3 billion, about 25% lower than Zomato’s.

Both companies are rapidly expanding into the quick commerce sector, offering grocery delivery within minutes. Last month, India’s largest retail distributors’ group requested the CCI to investigate alleged predatory pricing practices in this segment by Zomato, Swiggy, and competitor Zepto.

Read Aslo: Tata expands iphone manufacturing in India with Pegatron

Indian Hotels profit up by 232% for Q2, reaching ₹554 crore, with revenue rising by 27%.

Indian Hotels profit up by 232%

Indian Hotels profit jumped 232% year-on-year to ₹554.6 crore in the quarter ended September 2024, compared with ₹167 crore in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year. The strong increase in quarterly profit was accompanied by a 27.4% rise in operating revenue, highlighting continued growth in the company’s hospitality business.

Indian Hotels Profit Rises 232%: Q2 Results

Indian Hotels Company Ltd. (IHCL) reported the results in its exchange filing, with EBITDA also recording strong growth during the quarter.

Operating revenue grew by 27.4%, rising to ₹1,826 crore compared to ₹1,433 crore in the prior year’s period. Total income for the current quarter reached ₹1,890.2 crore. Expenses for the company also saw an increase, climbing to ₹1,502 crore from ₹1,248.68 crore a year earlier.

In Q2 results, Indian Hotels profit up by 232%. The company’s Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) stood at ₹501.27 crore, up 41.3% from ₹354.78 crore in the year-ago quarter. On the NSE, shares of IHCL closed at ₹688.30 per share, marking a slight rise of 0.53%.

Read Also: India’s Factory Growth Speeds Up in October, PMI Reveals

Noel Tata Joins Tata Sons Board as First Family Member Since 2011

Noel Tata Joins Tata Sons Board

Noel Tata has been appointed to the board of Tata Sons, the holding company of the Tata Group, marking an important development in the group’s governance structure. His appointment makes him the first Tata family member since 2011 to hold positions on both the Tata Trusts and Tata Sons boards.

Following the appointment, Noel Tata met Tata Sons chairman N Chandrasekaran, with sources describing the interaction as the beginning of a positive and constructive working relationship.

Noel Tata Joins Tata Sons Board: Key Details

With Noel Tata’s addition, the Tata Sons board now includes three Tata Trusts-nominated directors: TVS chairman emeritus Venu Srinivasan, former defense ministry official Vijay Singh, and Tata himself. Presently, Noel Tata, along with Srinivasan, Singh, and Mehli Mistry, are members of the executive committee overseeing Tata Trusts.

The Tata Sons board currently comprises nine members: two executive directors, including Chandrasekaran, three non-executive directors—Noel Tata, Srinivasan, and Singh—and four independent directors.

India’s Factory Growth Speeds Up in October, PMI Reveals

India's Factory Growth Speeds Up

India manufacturing PMI rose to 57.5 in October from 56.5 in September, signaling a renewed acceleration in the country’s factory activity after three consecutive months of slowdown. The improvement was supported by stronger domestic and international demand, rising new orders and increased business confidence.

The latest HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, also showed that output and new orders reached their highest levels in three months, while manufacturers continued to increase hiring.

India Manufacturing PMI: October Growth Highlights

“New orders and international sales growth indicate strong demand for India’s manufacturing sector,” Bhandari added.

Both output and new orders hit a three-month peak, signaling heightened demand, with international demand recovering from a previous low in September. Rising demand for Indian goods saw orders from regions like Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the U.S., boosting the outlook for the coming year.

“Business optimism is high, driven by expectations of sustained consumer demand, upcoming product launches, and pending sales approvals,” Bhandari further noted.

With demand surging, companies ramped up hiring, marking the eighth consecutive month of employment growth. This trend may ease pressure on the government, which faces challenges in creating well-paid jobs for new workforce entrants. However, economists project moderate job creation over the next year, as per a recent Reuters survey.

Inflationary pressures rose, with input and output prices climbing. Input costs hit a three-month high due to increased material expenses, wage demands, and transportation fees, leading firms to pass these costs to clients more quickly than in September.

India’s inflation reached 5.49% in September, nearing the RBI’s 2-6% target range and primarily driven by rising food prices. Despite this, a recent Reuters survey indicated that a slim majority of economists expect the RBI to cut interest rates in December from the current 6.50% to 6.25%.